![]() ![]() This 1950s style of ball helped them exceed expectations, but that speaks more to what we expected coming into the season than it did their actual performance. The Falcons played a unique style of football last season, particularly in the early part of the season, hiding Marcus Mariota as a passer and leaning on one of the league's top run-blocking offensive lines. Best Bet: NFC South Second Place (+180, BetMGM) ![]() I'd love to fade the Saints this season in another scenario, but it's difficult to do so under these conditions. They'll play the majority of the league's worst projected teams, meaning they're set to face a lot of the league's worst quarterbacks. The Saints have the league's easiest schedule, according to opponent win totals heading into the 2023 season. Handicapping the Saints and all of the NFC South this season comes down to their schedule. They were poor at generating pressure last season, and I don't think they've improved, so I'm worried that there's more regression to come. They've had a bit of turnover among the front seven this offseason, but they should still be a slightly above-average unit overall if Marshon Lattimore plays more than seven games. They dealt with a number of impactful injuries in the secondary and still managed to finish 2022 ranking sixth in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA. What we get from Michael Thomas at this point is anyone's guess.ĭefensively, Dennis Allen deserves a lot of credit for keeping this team afloat. If Miller can pull off a poor man's Kamara early on, this is a duo that compliments each other well and will be impactful all year, given Kamara's production is trending in the wrong direction. The Saints added backfield depth behind Kamara, with 2022 touchdown king Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller added this offseason. A four-game suspension has been routinely tossed around and feels like the minimum, but these things are always tough to parse through. Kamara has had a suspension hanging over his head since last offseason, and this week's news should lead to an answer on that front sooner than later. Prominently featuring second-year wide receiver Chris Olave is a must, but the Saints' path to NFC South dominance lies in the hands of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. This unit in New Orleans acts as a significant upgrade despite being a middle-of-the-pack unit on a league-wide basis. Because he doesn't take sacks and gets the ball out quickly, Carr can function behind a poor offensive line, which he did for most of his career as a Raider. His career-high 9.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT) last year led to the lowest adjusted completion percentage (ADJ%) since his rookie year, which is likely more scheme specific than signal moving forward. He's a low-yield mutual fund in the middle of a crypto boom. ![]() The offseason addition of Derek Carr helps raise the floor for the Saints in 2023, but we know who he is at this point. An underperforming offense mixed with an overachieving defense led the Saints to a 7-win season and an offseason where finding a stable presence at quarterback in the post- Drew Brees era was paramount. Middling quarterback play and head-scratching in-game management from head coach Dennis Allen capped the Saints' upside in 2022, with the latter still likely an issue moving forward. The Saints couldn't take advantage of the wide-open NFC South last season. Get a full year of our subscription for as low as $10, or 3 months for $5! Find out how. To make it easier for you to find the best number and explore all the available markets in one place, we've created a tool where you can search all NFL Futures. This season, the NFC South faces the AFC South and NFC North while rotating through the NFC East, AFC East, and NFC West for their "unique 3" opponents. In this space, I went 20-11-1 overall ( +9.55 units). This was a fruitful venture for those that tailed in 2022. I'll go division by division here on the site, in lock-step with each week's show, giving you my elevator pitch for each team and the best way to bet on them in the futures market. I deep dive into all aspects of each roster, along with scheduling anomalies and anything else that might matter in preparation for each episode. We kicked off our Divisional Preview Series on Move The Line last week, and a ton of work goes into that on my end. But let's be honest you've made more egregious -EV decisions in your life than getting down on the Falcons to make the playoffs in early July. BetMGM + 4for4 Sub Deal (Free Betting Subscription)Ī case can be made that tying up funds in NFL futures for 5+ months is a pretty -EV way to handle your money.VividPicks + 4for4 Sub Deal (Free Subscription). ![]()
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